![]() In this Report we revise down our global demand estimate for 2021 by 200 kb/d, to 96.4 mb/d, following adjustments to historical data, but growth remains largely unchanged at 5.4 mb/d year-on-year. In its January update, the International Monetary Fund raised the global GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.5% from 5.2% as the robust recovery in manufacturing activity and stronger growth expectations for the United States offset near-term weakness. Renewed lockdowns, stringent mobility restrictions and a rather slow vaccine roll-out in Europe have delayed the anticipated rebound until the second half of the year. The prospect of tighter markets ahead lifted benchmark crude oil prices to one-year highs in early February, with Brent trading at $60/bbl and WTI at $57/bbl. But fresh support has been provided by a more positive economic outlook for the second half of the year, along with a pledge from OPEC+ to hasten the drawdown of surplus oil inventories. The rebalancing of the oil market remains fragile in the early part of 2021 as measures to contain the spread of Covid-19, with its more contagious variants, weigh heavily on the near-term recovery in global oil demand. Physical markets have lagged futures as differentials reflect some delays in clearing cargoes. Paper markets drove prices higher, reflecting a favourable overall economic outlook for 2H21 and OPEC+ supply cuts. ![]() ICE Brent crude futures rose above $60/bbl in early February and the 12-month backwardation breached $4/bbl, returning prices to pre-pandemic levels.OECD crude stocks were 62.8 mb below the May 2020 peak. A monthly decline of 44.6 mb (1.44 mb/d) left inventories at 3 063 mb, 138.3 mb above their five-year average. In December, OECD industry stocks fell for the fifth consecutive month. Global implied stock draws accelerated from 1.56 mb/d in 3Q20 to 2.24 mb/d in 4Q20. ![]() In 2020, the Atlantic Basin refinery intake fell to 38.7 mb/d, the lowest in IEA records, which started in 1971. Most of the gains will come from the Atlantic Basin, where refinery activity is recovering from a lower base. 1Q21 runs are expected to fall by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y, but annual growth is set to resume from 2Q21 onwards.
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